by Dish Staff Stephen Mihm studies it at length: In 2002, two economic historians, Stanley Engerman and Kenneth Sokoloff, published an influential paper th...
Posted By Sreedhar Pillai at Friday, June 21, 2013||PERMALINK Labels: #lrose, BJP, business, election 2014, India, investors, Manmohan Singh, Sonia Gandhi, upa
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|A congruence of recent political development in |
India auger a period of stability and growth
Despite the relative success of the first UPA government of Sonia Gandhi and Dr Manmohan Singh, heralding reforms and forward looking policies encouraging foreign investors, the second term which will end this year had shaken investor confidence in India.
The bottom line is, unlike their first term in power, albeit with the support of the Indian Left, the UPA is a minority government without real law-making clout in its second term which will end this year.
The government was virtually handicapped warding off waves of anti-corruption sentiment, set off by an irresponsible CAG who went on presuming mammoth losses on the Government's populist policies, which the opposition rode to stall law making and policy implementation, abetting national growth.
Despite all this, the UPA2 still has produced an impressive above 5 percent GDP growth while the U.S. and Europe by and large reeled under a double dip recession.
A congruence of recent political developments in India, however, auger a period of stability and growth in the coming decade which savvy investors will look forward to.
India, a Democracy of the People, for the People, By the Gifts.Allegations of bribery of the electorate by Obama administration were raised by Romney after he lost the last US Presidential election. He might have been very close to be true had it been any election in India.
Electorate in India are won by timely gifts of anything from a kitchen grinders to a laptops to the electorate or even promises of such gifts if elected to power. In every state election, political parties declare the gifts in their manifesto.
In a national election, gifts are more subtle and the UPA chair person Sonia Gandhi has understood this weakness of the Indian electorate more than anyone else.
Sonia won the last election by forcing the Finance Minister Chidambaram to divert $ 13000 Million to write off farmer loans and distribute unemployment benefit under a minimum work assurance scheme.
Sonia and the UPA has put in place measures to capitalise on this by ensuring direct credit of cash subsidies in to bank accounts and the food security bill (which the BJP has stalled so far) which will be put in place well before the election by an ordinance if everything else fail.
There are however other reasons why the UPA will return to power and possibly with a better mandate, ensuring good investment climate and growth rate.
Corruption has different meanings in Indian Politics and Indian Life.For 1.3 billion people of India, corruption is a way of life and something they can't live without. Paying a few bucks to get a rail ticket or cooking gas or college admission for a child is taken for granted, which the most agitated anti corruption protestor can't deny not having ever done.
Again, Sonia Gandhi has learned this truth and has put in to great use, to win regional elections, by supporting tainted popular leaders accused of corruption, though not always proved and punished.
Though no leader has ever lost an election in India because he or she is accused of corruption, fight against corruption is the only activity of parties in opposition, to stay alive and relevant till the next election, creating hurdles for governance at the cost of growth and development of the country.
Despite all the moralistic clamour by the urban elite, privy to high wages, who can't get the benefit of infra structure and services from the lower paid public sector, which the political opposition plan to ride on and use as an election plank, as corrupt leaders have been re elected in several states.
With administrative reforms within the party and better care in choosing candidates, UPA is closing this electoral ploy of the opposition, determined not to lose the election on this account.
Next Indian Election of 2014 Already Won by the UPA!
BJP sort of lost the election when, propped up by the Hindutwa organisation RSS and an Indian origin business lobby in the US, Narendra Modi, self proclaimed architect of development and BJP leader foisted himself as the next Prime Minister of India.
As a matter of fact the next election has already been won by Sonia and her UPA by a sort ofHara-kiri conducted by the BJP recently in their conclave in Goa, also saving the US administration a major dilemma.
Despite propaganda by thousands of misguided urban Indians who hang around social media and have no clue of reality of a billion villagers, Modi's ploy backfired when one of the real architects of BJP and its perennial Prime Minister in waiting , Advani revolted.
The problem is the anti Muslim tag of Narendra Modi by condoning a riot in 2002 leading to the death of thousands of Muslims has stuck with Modi, no matter what development he has claimed.
The Goa episode resulted in the split up of the NDA alliance , destroying any chance of BJP putting up a fight to regain power from the UPA. The departed partner JDU has claimed :
People are scared of even talking of Bihar's asmita (pride). This is not good for democracy. I say this with a sense of responsibility. An entire party has been bulldozed in the name of workers and cadre. Whoever criticizes gets abused on Twitter and Facebook. Abuses are heaped on journalists as well as others, who don't agree with a particular viewpoint or join in the propaganda. Is this democracy? What happened to right to dissent?
Monsoon Havoc Is More Votes for the Ruling Party In Disguise.The Indian Monsoon, which bring in the rain every year to sustain agriculture has a great effect not only the economy, but also the national elections.
Traditionally, If the Monsoon is good in an election year, a happy electorate will be with the government with lower food prices and all round prosperity. As the Monsoon this year is more than good, despite havocs and death, the UPA can rest assured of a cheerful mood with the electorate.
Pending Reforms and Projects Can Only Move Forward.
Dr Manmohan Singh and his government which is on a life support by warring local parties with vested interest to complete the current term, in fact has a free hand now to push reform agenda and stalled projects. With nothing to lose and only an election to win, such actions will fill the rest of the term, paving sound foundation for economic development.
Things can go wrong in political calculations. However for India, if the pro capital BJP will somehow garner the power and win the election, Indian business will only stand to gain.
Either way the coin flips in the Next election, foreign investors with capital stand to gain in the India Story , at least for the next decade.
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