Showing posts with label India #lrosde. Show all posts

Can India’s Antony Be Its Next Dark Horse Prime Minister?

Let me say this, I barely know A.K Antony except that we both hail from ‘God’s Own Country’, the little piece of beautiful land on the tip of the Indian Peninsula, the marvellous beauty of which  is preserved by its  anti development politics.

Not a political analysts by any stretch of Imagination; for that matter not even someone who lives anymore in the country, there are no pretences of erudition either in this. As a common man whose eyes and ears are not shut to the abundance of information incessantly pouring on to the a screen in front of me, I simply exert my fundamental right to venture a wild guess of my own.

In fact It is Antony’s own words during a recent campaign which points to this inevitability.

Criticising the  Marxist Communist Party, his main political opposition in Kerala, Antony has predicted that the CPM will be forced to support the UPA , the ruling  alliance  to form the next government, as they did in 2004.

The CPM  has not only vehemently denied this, but is strongly harping on the wishful idea of a “Third Font”, a political salad bowl of nuts, leaves and weeds, hardly palatable to the Indian masses.

Indians are fed up such exotic diet, meted out to them by several coalitions who only unite to fight and wither away in the past, lacking common ideology, purpose or will to govern.

The current “Third Front” so far remains merely as a photo session, with raised and clutched hands of as many leaders of regional parties as the number of those who want to be the Prime Minister of India, which has become a ridiculous icon of the fast crumbling idea of the Union of India.

Nevertheless, manifestation of  a political Phobia against the Bharathiya Janata Party,  which has unite the scattered opposition in the past, is in its highest pitch this time, thanks to a brazen and aggressive campaign of BJP’s self appointed prime ministerial candidate Modi himself.

If this manifested in the previous two elections as a force to prevent the BJP, a party with a hidden Hindutwa agenda to push minorities to second class, this time it is working as a formidable force to prevent a dictatorial Modi from grabbing the Prime Ministerial chair of India.  

Abetted by such concerns within the country’s minorities and even within the BJP itself, various anti Modi campaigns  by various forces, especially by the newly formed Aam Admi Party of Arvind Kejeriwal, can end up with the Third Front  grabbing a significant number of parliamentary seats, despite various opinion polls predicting otherwise.

Moreover, the gap between the results of opinion polls and political reality in Indian parliamentary election (different from the state elections influenced by local and regional forces), could be wider, given the massive financial influence exerted on the Indian media ahead of this year’s election.

All these factors can add up to a situation quite similar to 2004, as being claimed by Antony, perhaps less rosier than what is hoped by Rahul Gandhi, his party’s vice president and its potential nominee for the position of the Prime Minister.

Given the extreme and publicised ambitions of each of the leaders of the Third Front to become the PM, it is unlikely that they can agree upon one, especially if the combined strength is likely to be less than that of the UPA.

It  will also be not entirely unrealistic to expect  the two lady Chief Ministers to keep themselves out of the front, certainly due to the presence of their arch enemies and in any case as none of their male counterparts will concede them the coveted position of the Prime Minister.

In such a scenario, the combined determination of  everyone to Keep Modi out of power, for the good of the nation and their own political survival can crystallise in to a support of Sonia Gandhi’s UPA in forming the next government.

Rahul Gandhi, the vice president of  the Congress Party is will be , at best a very reluctant Prime Minister, who will much prefer to be its ideologist and party builder till at least another election.

In any case, Rahul Gandhi, who has taken the brunt of the political rhetoric and criticism from each of the leaders of the Front, (Remember Amul Baby?) is not someone, the elderly Prime Ministerial aspirants of the front will accept without some heart burn and loss of face.

That is where A K Antony and his stature within the party and his consensus building talents will come to the aid of all Modi haters, perhaps as a silver lining on the dark clouds the next election threaten to bring over the great nation of India.  

If that happens, the leaders of the CPM which Antony NOW says will have no choice but to support the UPA,  will be more than happy to support him, even forgetting the party ideology.

Many of them, after all,  are his compatriots  from God’s Own Country.

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